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Evolutionary determinants of reproductive seasonality: a theoretical approachuse asterix (*) to get italics
Lugdiwine Burtschell, Jules Dezeure, Elise Huchard, Bernard GodellePlease use the format "First name initials family name" as in "Marie S. Curie, Niels H. D. Bohr, Albert Einstein, John R. R. Tolkien, Donna T. Strickland"
<p style="text-align: justify;">Reproductive seasonality is a major adaptation to seasonal cycles and varies substantially among organisms. This variation, which was long thought to reflect a simple latitudinal gradient, remains poorly understood for many species, in part due to a lacunary theoretical framework. Because seasonal cycles are increasingly disrupted by climate change, a better understanding of the ecology of reproductive seasonality could generate important insights on how climate change may affect biodiversity. The goal of this study was to investigate the drivers of evolutionary transitions towards reproductive seasonality using a realistic agent-based optimisation model simulating the life cycle of a female yellow baboon, who typically breeds year-round. Specifically, we tested the influence of three ecological traits (environmental seasonality, productivity and unpredictability) and three life-history traits (daily reproductive energy expenditure, reproductive cycle length and infant extrinsic mortality) on the intensity of reproductive seasonality. To do so, we simulated diverse reproductive phenology strategies (from non-seasonal to highly seasonal), assessed which were optimal and computed, for the set of optimal strategies, the intensity of reproductive seasonality. We then induced variation in each trait of interest and examined how it affected the intensity of reproductive seasonality. We found significant effects of all three environmental traits: high reproductive seasonality was favoured by high environmental seasonality, low environmental productivity and low unpredictability. It was further, and most strongly, favoured by high daily reproductive energy expenditure. In contrast, there was no significant effect of reproductive cycle length and infant extrinsic mortality. Our modelling approach successfully disentangled the effects of environmental seasonality, productivity and unpredictability on the intensity of reproductive seasonality, which likely all contribute to generate the well-known association between latitude and reproductive seasonality. Our results further highlight the critical importance of life history pace on the evolution of reproductive seasonality. Overall, this study contributes a powerful theoretical framework and modelling tool that may apply across the life-history space, as well as sheds new light on the emergence and maintenance of non-seasonal breeding in slow-living species, including humans.</p> should fill this box only if you chose 'All or part of the results presented in this preprint are based on data'. URL must start with http:// or https:// should fill this box only if you chose 'Scripts were used to obtain or analyze the results'. URL must start with http:// or https:// should fill this box only if you chose 'Codes have been used in this study'. URL must start with http:// or https://
Baboon, ecology, life history, modelling, phenology, reproduction, seasonality, unpredictability
Evolutionary ecology, Life history, Theoretical ecology
Sandra Heldstab:, Fernando Campos:, Victoria Boult: No need for them to be recommenders of PCIEcology. Please do not suggest reviewers for whom there might be a conflict of interest. Reviewers are not allowed to review preprints written by close colleagues (with whom they have published in the last four years, with whom they have received joint funding in the last four years, or with whom they are currently writing a manuscript, or submitting a grant proposal), or by family members, friends, or anyone for whom bias might affect the nature of the review - see the code of conduct
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2022-08-23 21:37:28
Tim Coulson
Nigel Yoccoz