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412

Controversy over the decline of arthropods: a matter of temporal baseline?use asterix (*) to get italics
François Duchenne, Emmanuelle Porcher, Jean-Baptiste Mihoub, Grégoire Loïs, Colin FontainePlease use the format "First name initials family name" as in "Marie S. Curie, Niels H. D. Bohr, Albert Einstein, John R. R. Tolkien, Donna T. Strickland"
2022
<p style="text-align: justify;">Recently, a number of studies have reported somewhat contradictory patterns of temporal trends in arthropod abundance, from decline to increase. Arthropods often exhibit non-monotonous variation in abundance over time, making it important to account for temporal coverage in interpretation of abundance trends, which is often overlooked in statistical analysis. Combining four recently analysed datasets that led to contrasting outcomes, we first show that temporal abundance variations of arthropods are non-monotonous. Using simulations, we show non-monotony is likely to bias estimated linear abundance trends. Finally, analysing empirical data, we show that heterogeneity in estimated abundance trends is significantly related to the variation in temporal baseline of analysed time series. Once differences in baseline years, habitats and continents are accounted for, we do not find any statistical difference in estimated linear abundance trends among the four datasets. We also show that short time series produce more stochastic abundance trends than long series, making the dearth of old and long-term time series a strong limitation in the assessment of temporal trends in arthropod abundance. The lack of time series with a baseline year before global change acceleration is likely to lead to an underestimation of global change effects on biodiversity.</p>
https://zenodo.org/record/5920433#.YgFazvgo9hEYou should fill this box only if you chose 'All or part of the results presented in this preprint are based on data'. URL must start with http:// or https://
https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.09.479422You should fill this box only if you chose 'Scripts were used to obtain or analyze the results'. URL must start with http:// or https://
You should fill this box only if you chose 'Codes have been used in this study'. URL must start with http:// or https://
insect; population trends; shifting baseline syndrome; temporal trends; time series; abundance
NonePlease indicate the methods that may require specialised expertise during the peer review process (use a comma to separate various required expertises).
Conservation biology
No need for them to be recommenders of PCIEcology. Please do not suggest reviewers for whom there might be a conflict of interest. Reviewers are not allowed to review preprints written by close colleagues (with whom they have published in the last four years, with whom they have received joint funding in the last four years, or with whom they are currently writing a manuscript, or submitting a grant proposal), or by family members, friends, or anyone for whom bias might affect the nature of the review - see the code of conduct
e.g. John Doe [john@doe.com]
2022-02-11 15:44:44
Tim Coulson