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Hierarchizing multi-scale environmental effects on agricultural pest population dynamics: a case study on the annual onset of *Bactrocera dorsalis* population growth in Senegalese orchardsuse asterix (*) to get italics
Cécile Caumette, Paterne Diatta, Sylvain Piry, Marie-Pierre Chapuis, Emile Faye, Fabio Sigrist, Olivier Martin, Julien Papaïx, Thierry Brévault, Karine BerthierPlease use the format "First name initials family name" as in "Marie S. Curie, Niels H. D. Bohr, Albert Einstein, John R. R. Tolkien, Donna T. Strickland"
<p>Implementing integrated pest management programs to limit agricultural pest damage requires an understanding of the interactions between the environmental variability and population demographic processes. However, identifying key environmental drivers of spatio-temporal pest population dynamics remains challenging as numerous candidate factors can operate at a range of scales, from the field (e.g. agricultural practices) to the regional scale (e.g. weather variability). In such a context, data-driven approaches applied to pre-existing data may allow identifying patterns, correlations, and trends that may not be apparent through more restricted hypothesis-driven studies. The resulting insights can lead to the generation of novel hypotheses and inform future experimental work focusing on a limited and relevant set of environmental predictors. In this study, we developed an ecoinformatics approach to unravel the multi-scale environmental conditions that lead to the early re-infestation of mango orchards by a major pest in Senegal, the oriental fruit fly <em>Bactrocera dorsalis</em> (BD). We gathered abundance data from a three-year monitoring conducted in 69 mango orchards as well as environmental data (i.e. orchard management, landscape structure and weather variability) across a range of spatial scales. We then developed a flexible analysis pipeline centred on a recent machine learning algorithm, which allows the combination of gradient boosting and grouped random effects models or Gaussian processes, to hierarchize the effects of multi-scale environmental variables on the onset of annual BD population growth in orchards. We found that physical factors (humidity, temperature), and to some extent landscape variables, were the main drivers of the spatio-temporal variability of the onset of population growth in orchards. These results suggest that favourable microclimate conditions could provide refuges for small BD populations that could survive, with little or no reproduction, during the mango off-season and, then, recolonize neighbouring orchards at the beginning of the next mango season. Confirmation of such a hypothesis could help to prioritize surveillance and preventive control actions in refuge areas.</p> should fill this box only if you chose 'All or part of the results presented in this preprint are based on data'. URL must start with http:// or https:// should fill this box only if you chose 'Scripts were used to obtain or analyze the results'. URL must start with http:// or https://
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*Bactrocera dorsalis*, mango crop, weather, landscape, agricultural practices, GPBoost, population dynamics, abundance time series, ecoinformatics, machine learning
NonePlease indicate the methods that may require specialised expertise during the peer review process (use a comma to separate various required expertises).
Demography, Landscape ecology, Statistical ecology
No need for them to be recommenders of PCIEcology. Please do not suggest reviewers for whom there might be a conflict of interest. Reviewers are not allowed to review preprints written by close colleagues (with whom they have published in the last four years, with whom they have received joint funding in the last four years, or with whom they are currently writing a manuscript, or submitting a grant proposal), or by family members, friends, or anyone for whom bias might affect the nature of the review - see the code of conduct
e.g. John Doe []
2023-12-11 17:02:08
Elodie Vercken